Talent over Capital

The bet that never fails

Always bet on talent over capital.

Last Saturday, I met up with an old friend from my hedge fund days. Back in 2011 we would talk about financial conspiracy theories that hadn’t yet become mainstream. We’d talk about how stupid most jobs were. And my friend was crafty enough to have about a quarter million dollars to his name after a couple years of working and investing.

He promptly asked his company to lay him off, moved to Silicon Valley, and founded a company that you never heard of because it failed before ever getting much traction at all. But he kept plugging along. He got a job in crypto in 2013 and by the time the 2017 bull market came, he had become a multi millionaire.

He was early to the game, made bets with conviction and wasn’t about to stop. So he doubled down and invested nearly all of his assets in a project that ended up failing. Back to square one. Again.

Not only did my friend’s net worth take a hit, his ego did too. He knew he was so much smarter than other people in the industry. But even an industry filled with autistic geniuses didn’t recognize his vision. But he didn’t stop building. He took the ashes from his more recent failed investment and repurposed them towards another project at the beginning of 2023. Since then he’s netted over 8 figures.

A lot of people were happy to see him strike out because he was never a humble junior employee. He’s always called it like he saw it. He was smart and he knew he was smart. But he still struck out twice in big ways before hitting a home run.

And he was able to hit a home run because he had talent and he never stopped betting on himself. The worst thing that you can do as a talented individual is play it safe. You have to bet on yourself when nobody else will and you have to do it even after it’s backfired.

If you’re not willing to bet on yourself, I guarantee you’ll look back on your life and wonder what would have happened if you did.